Assess battery profitability

Two hour BESS
Trade on intraday
Trade on imbalance markets
Historical profitability in 5 countries

The KYOS Battery Index reports cashflows in a specific past month for the defined battery and market. The index is a single value per market and expressed in EUR/MW/day.

The data sources are: EPEX (ID1) for NL, BE, DE, GB. TenneT, Elia and Elexon for Imbalance in NL, BE and GB. OMIE for ES.
Intraday trading is done with perfect foresight of the prices, based on dynamic programming optimization. This means the battery charges/discharges in the optimal moments.

The passive imbalance trading strategy creates a short (or long) position whenever the forecasted IB take (feed) price in the next hour falls (rises) sufficiently below (above) recent IB take (feed) prices. The thresholds are defined independently for each market in a way that it maximizes the revenue.

A multi-linear regression based on historical imbalance and intraday prices is used to generate the imbalance price forecasts. The income from passive imbalance trading is calculated on the imbalances times the actual imbalance prices.

To explain the interaction with the intraday market, pretend there are two independent traders operating in each market:

Intraday Trader: This trader optimizes battery dispatch based on expected price developments in the intraday market. The primary trader's decisions are made 1 hour ahead of the imbalance trader.

Imbalance Trader: After the primary trader makes her decision, the imbalance trader reviews the battery's current state and the primary trader's positions. He then decides on trades based on recent imbalance prices and forecasts for the next period.

Finally, the imbalance trader must ensure that any trades he makes do not exceed the battery's capacity limits. He updates the primary trader on the new state of charge, which she will consider in her next decision-making cycle.